Least pessimism gives more confidence to the shale

Less pessimism gives more confidence to the shale gas industry

in 2012, China's unconventional natural gas production reached 44.5 billion cubic meters. Among them, the output of tight gas reached 32 billion cubic meters, with a net increase of 6.4 billion cubic meters, an increase of 25% year-on-year; The output of coalbed methane reached 12.5 billion cubic meters, with a net increase of 1billion cubic meters. The best plan was put forward, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; Shale gas production reached 50million cubic meters. Three kinds of unconventional natural gas accounted for 41.75% of China's total natural gas production in 2012. It can be predicted that unconventional gas will account for half of China's natural gas production in the next few years

among unconventional natural gas, shale gas is currently the hottest development. However, the workload, resource identification and output of shale gas development did not seem to meet the expectations of industry insiders. People are more critical of its resources and technology. The author believes that shale gas, a brand-new gas, should be less pessimistic and more confident. At present, it is too early to judge the development of shale gas in China by only 100 wells

for the development of shale gas in China, we should be less pessimistic. There are three reasons: first, shale gas exploration in China began in 2007, and by 2012, there were 77 wells drilled, with a success rate of more than 70%. Shale gas development in the United States has a history of decades. By 2012, there were as many as 60000 shale gas wells. There are obvious differences between the two in the development period. Second, the area of sedimentary rocks in China is 6.7 million square kilometers, 100000 square kilometers larger than that in the United States. Third, China has made substantial breakthroughs in shale gas exploration, such as well yuan 21 in Fuling block, with a daily output of 570000 cubic meters. At present, the seven wells drilled in the Ordos Basin, although above the source oil layer, have a daily production of 1million ~ 1.84 million cubic meters, higher than the main oil layer

these facts fully show that China has great potential for shale gas exploration and development. The success or failure of a well or even the success or failure of a region is not the reason to judge the success or failure of the development of shale gas, a new gas. The development of unconventional resources should take an unconventional path. At present, there are several key tasks to be done in China's shale gas development

second, we are committed to low-cost technology development. In actual exploration, it is impossible for every well to have a daily output of tens of thousands of cubic meters. Many shale gas wells have low production, so they have little development value. The author believes that to explore the low-cost management method of shale gas, we should not hesitate to learn from the experience of Sulige gas field. Sulige gas field is the largest gas field in China at present. It is a typical tight gas reservoir with low pressure, low permeability and low abundance. It is impossible to realize effective exploitation by traditional conventional technology. After 2008, based on the successful experience at home and abroad, Changqing Oilfield introduced a series of technologies suitable for the development of natural gas horizontal wells in the gas field, such as reservoir prediction and fine description, horizontal well deployment and optimization design, rapid drilling of horizontal wells, geological guidance of horizontal wells, multi-stage fracturing and reconstruction of horizontal wells, especially multi-stage and multi cluster fracturing of horizontal wells. Therefore, the world-famous FERODO company established the promotion and application of fracturing and reconstruction technology, A nested air flow channel in the fracture is formed underground, which fundamentally improves the production of a single well

third, focus on the construction of shale gas demonstration areas. At present, some shale gas demonstration areas in China are national level and some are company level. From the beginning of the construction of the demonstration area, we should pay equal attention to the exploration of technical routes and resource development methods. For example, horizontal well and volumetric fracturing have become a mature system in China, but the staged fracturing of horizontal section of horizontal well has not become a reality technology in China. If the company can master this transformation technology, the cost of shale gas development will be greatly reduced

China's proven conventional oil reserves are 33 billion tons. Calculated by 15% of oil generation, the resources stored only in shale and other source rocks are as high as 160 billion to 250 billion tons, with broad exploration prospects. Once the development cost of low-grade resources drops significantly, it will completely change the energy supply situation in China