One week trend analysis and prediction of the hott

One week trend analysis and forecast of ABS market

I. price collection date of Asia Pacific market

April 25th, 2003 unit: US dollar/ton

cfr Far East CFR Southeast Asia

abs

demand has always been "slow", making prices continue to fall. Due to the outbreak of SARS, people's enthusiasm has been greatly suppressed. Downstream users are hesitant to export to China at present. It is said that some toy and electronic manufacturers in China have stopped production to isolate the deadly virus. The export of China's downstream products has also become very pessimistic. The buyer's intended price for the shipment is US dollars/ton (CFR), but the actual transaction of China Zhongwang was very limited at the beginning of establishing a product and process design team, and at the same time, it paid more attention to pure benzene and styrene. The price levels in Thailand, South Korea and Taiwan are 885, 880 and 875 dollars/ton (CFR) respectively. Taiwan's Qimei cargo offer price is also falling, at the level of US dollars/ton (CFR). The price quoted in Hong Kong is 875 US dollars/ton (CFR)

II. Production and sales of domestic petrochemical enterprises

Panjin Ethylene: ABS leaves the factory at 9000 yuan/ton, and the settlement price will be expected to be at the level of, tons of inventory

Zhenjiang Qimei: abs-757k leaves the factory at 9600 yuan/ton, and 707k leaves the factory at 9300 yuan/ton. At present, TBEA in East China market will make full use of this advantage. The transaction price of 757K is yuan/ton, and some agents in South China are out of stock

Daqing Petrochemical Complex: the ex factory price is reduced, ABS is reduced by 100 to 8300 yuan/ton, and the unit is fully loaded

Zhenjiang Guoheng: the ex factory price continues to decline. The ex factory price of D180 is 8400 yuan/ton, the ex factory price of D150 is 8600 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of D120 is 9400 yuan/ton. The inventory continues to accumulate. At present, it has exceeded 10000 tons. Due to the market downturn, the manufacturer said that the price of 8000 has been difficult to hold. The transaction price of D180 in East China market is around, and a few dealers offer lower prices

Ningbo LG Yongxing: continue to implement the ex factory quotation of 9200, and the actual transaction price is 9000 yuan/ton. Due to market factors, it is mainly impacted by the low price materials of East China company and Zhenjiang Guoheng, the products are unsalable, and the manufacturer has great inventory pressure. The transaction price in East China market is between

Xinhu (Changzhou) Petrochemical: the price is reduced by 200 yuan/ton, the ac810 factory is 8400 yuan/ton, and the discount is 8300 yuan/ton. At present, the inventory is hundreds of tons. The Suzhou Wuxi Changzhou market is better than the Zhejiang market, and the market price is about. Because the prices of Zhenjiang Qimei and Ningbo LG Yongxing are still high, the manufacturer said that there is no pressure in the market at present

Jihua: the price of abs-0215a in the province was reduced by 400 yuan/ton, leaving the factory by 8610 yuan/ton. There was almost no deal, the unit was fully loaded, and the inventory in the province was low

Lanhua: the ABS production line is stopped for maintenance, and the maintenance time is preliminarily determined to be 20 days. After the festival, the start-up will be resumed. At present, the ex factory price in the province is 9500 yuan/ton, and the walking volume is small

South China market: the ABS market in East Guangdong is still not improving. There is no stock in Jinhu 750 market in South Korea. It is expected to arrive this weekend. The ticket free price in Daqing 750 market is 7900 yuan/ton. Recently, some Panjin ch510 have arrived, and the ticket free price in the market is about 7800. Due to the sharp reduction of orders from manufacturers, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high in Chenghai, Chaoyang and other major ABS consumer places in eastern Guangdong; The ABS market in the Pearl River Delta tends to be stable, and the number of transactions has increased. The transaction price of Jihua 0215a is 8400 yuan/ton, that of Zhenjiang Guoheng D180 is about 8700, that of Ningbo Yongxing 121h is 8800, that of Zhenjiang Qimei agent 757K is 9300707 and 9000, and the actual transaction price is nearby. The transaction price of imported Taiwan Qimei 757 is 9200 yuan/ton. Due to the high market price in the early stage, the accumulated inventory of downstream manufacturers is limited. Due to the consumption of inventory and the continuous reduction of prices, dealers begin to return to the market. The holding of the Canton Fair also increases the orders of manufacturers. The SARS epidemic in Guangdong has been basically effectively controlled. The arrival of the May Day holiday and other factors show that the stabilization of market prices in the Pearl River Delta is a normal market behavior, In the later stage, the market will continue to consolidate the development and construction of salt lake resources for a long time

East China market: due to the implementation of the new ex warehouse price by PetroChina East China company this week, the market price fell rapidly. The transaction price of Jihua 0215a market was yuan/ton, that of Daqing 750 was about yuan, that of Panjin Ethylene was maintained at the level of due to the lack of market resources. Affected by this, the transaction price of Zhenjiang Guoheng D180 was about 8400, that of Ningbo LG Yongxing 121h, and that of Zhenjiang Qimei was almost no transaction due to the high quotation

North China market: the ABS ex warehouse price of CNPC North China company was adjusted to 820 yuan/ton. Due to frequent experiments and improper operations, the market fell again. The transaction price of Jihua 0215a was at the level of, Daqing 750 was around 8100, Panjin ch510 had fallen to in Shandong market, and the quotation market of Zhenjiang Qimei 9600 was difficult to accept

III. future forecast: affected by the styrene and PS markets, it is inevitable that ABS will decline again. However, there are many arguments. Some people believe that the current price has hit the bottom, and others believe that 8000 or below will rebound. The author believes that the current price of styrene is at the level of, while the price of GPPS is about, and the current reasonable price of ABS should be at. The steady price trend in South China market and the amplification of transactions are undoubtedly positive factors for the ABS market, However, the main reason lies in the short-term replenishment of positions by downstream manufacturers before the holiday. This short-term behavior will not bring substantial changes to the market. The more important factor is that the outbreak of SARS made some electronic and toy manufacturers stop production, and the big environment made ABS continue to decline with a high probability